Time/时间：11月7日（周五）10:00-11:30

Venue/地点：Room 501, Jiageng Building 2/嘉庚二号楼501教室

Topic/题目：One Piece: Political Relations and Capital Flows Across the Taiwan Strait

Speaker/报告人：Zhige Yu

Abstract/摘要：

This paper investigates whether the political relationship between Mainland of China and Taiwan influences firm-level investment behavior across the Strait. To capture this relationship, we construct a novel text-based political index using transcripts from the Taiwan Affairs Office. The mandatory reporting requirement for Taiwanese firms investing in Mainland of China provides a unique setting to study this question. Our findings indicate a positive association between Cross-Strait political relations and capital inflows from Taiwan. To strengthen causal inference, we develop a novel instrumental variable based on third-party diplomatic relationships. Furthermore, we show that public self-identification and economic development are key drivers of this phenomenon, whereas government policies on both sides play a limited role. We also find that regions with strong economic ties to Mainland of China—such as Hong Kong SAR and the British Virgin Islands—serve as major destinations for global capital flows when political index is high. Overall, our study provides important insights for policymakers and business leaders seeking to manage the Taiwan issue and promote a stable and peaceful regional environment, while also offering lessons for other conflict-prone regions worldwide.

About the Speaker/报告人简介：

Harry is an Assistant Professor at IFAS, Xiamen University. He received his Ph.D. in Accounting from the HKU Business School and also received rigorous training in economics, finance, and mathematics. His research has informed real-world practices, including the design of U.S. climate reporting standards, the proposal of the STOCK Act 2.0, and Hong Kong’s Genesis Project. His work on Confucianism and law was honorably mentioned in a Nobel Prize Lecture. Harry’s research papers have been presented at major academic conferences across all five continents, and one of his solo-authored papers received the 3rd GIGS Best Paper Award. Drawing on his exchange experience in Taiwan, he and his coauthors are currently providing a solution to address a long-standing historical legacy issue. During his student years, he earned multiple gold medals and top rankings in painting, running, basketball, mathematics, teaching, and business negotiation. Outside of academia, he is an enthusiastic fan of animals, Japanese comedies, and joke telling.